Turning to psychics
Today Richard Wiseman pointed out the flurry of recent news stories about psychics getting more business as we face difficult economic times. He covered similar material in his book, Quirkology, basically explaining that “superstitious behaviour gives people an illusion of control over their lives, and proves especially appealing in the face of high uncertainty.” Nevertheless, he asks: “why have our brains evolved to turn away from rationality just when we need it most?”
It seems to me that Wiseman has already answered his own question. People are calmed by the idea that there is some order even in seeming chaos. Perhaps his question was specifically about evolution — that is, how could superstition be a trait that’s selected for?
In that case, I think the answer lies in the calming, rather than in the superstition. Of course a psychic can’t give you any real insight into navigating financial markets. Complex mathematical models govern traders’ decisions about when to buy and when to sell. Logical thinking, not pseudoscience, is clearly what’s needed to develop those. Logical thinking was also necessary for primitive humans to develop a mammoth hunting strategy, to evade predatory animals, to survive cold winters… or to triumph in any number of situations in which they would probably have felt helpless or overpowered. The other thing necessary in all these situations — and, I’d argue, in playing the stock market — is a lack of panic. You can draw up all the logical plans you like, but they won’t do you any good if when you try to carry them out, you’re so afraid for your survival that you forget all about them or take additional actions that sabotage them. Things like carrying lucky trinkets, or performing special rituals, or receiving the affirmations of a spiritual leader (or psychic) offer reassurance that a higher power governs all that seems beyond your control, so you can take a deep breath and get back to your plans.
Of course, in understanding this situation it’s important to remember that to the vast majority of people, the stock market is little more than random chaos. Even the people who work as investment bankers are just one person in a sea of trading firms that, in the aggregate, have some moderate amount of control over the markets. Wiseman assumes that rationality is what we need most. As a general rule, I’d be inclined to agree with him. It’s obviously the ideal. However, I think in this case, what people need is the ability to make rational decisions, and sometimes people cling irrationally to a couple superstitions in order to be calm enough to act rationally the rest of the time.
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Well said Z. The line that had the most impact was the last one, and sums it up beautifully.